Article Archives: B K S Prasad

Forecasting

Forecasting is to predict the future condition of the project by comparing the progress of the project and with what we planned. By using Forecasting technique one can arrive at three parameters namely Estimate At Completion (EAC), Estimate To Complete (ETC) and Variance At Completion (VAC).

EAC: How much money is required to complete the entire project. This is as good as new Budget At Completion (BAC).

ETC: How much more money is required to complete the remaining work.

VAC:The difference between (or the variance between) original budget and the new budget. This can be surplus or deficit.

 

Here are different formulas used to calculate EAC, ETC and VAC :

i) ETC=EAC-AC

ii) VAC=BAC-EAC

 

There are four different variants to calculate EAC :

1. EAC = BAC/CPI — This is used if the current variances or the rate of spending of money remains same

2. EAC = AC+BAC-EV — This is used if the estimation has become abnormal for the work so far it is carried out and the remaining work will continue at the same budgeted rate.

3. EAC = AC+ETC — This is used when the estimation for the remaining work no longer exists and the new estimation to be carried out for the remaining work. ETC is nothing but remaining work which can be derived using bottom up estimation.

4. EAC = AC+((BAC-EV)/SPI*CPI)—This is used considering both the schedule and cost which can influence the remaining work.

 

To calculate the forecasting, first we need to complete the Earned Value Management (EVM), where we can obtain the parameters AC, PV, EV, SV, CV, SPI and CPI.

Forecasting technique is used under the process Control Costs.

To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI)

TCPI is to calculate the cost performance to be achieved in order to meet the project goals. The ratio of remaining work to be completed with remaining budget provides the TCPI.

To calculate TCPI first we need to calculate the EVM (Earned Value Management) and then based on AC (Actual Cost) , EV (Earned Value) we can calculate TCPI. TCPI is calculated under two conditions one with original budget and the other with new budget.

TCPI=(BAC-EV)/(BAC-AC)—With planned budget

TCPI=(BAC-EV)/(EAC-AC)—With new budget

BAC = Budget at completion

The ratio should be ideally 1. If it greater than 1, then difficult to complete and if less than 1 easier to complete.

TCPI is used as a technique under the process Control Costs.

Cost Benefit Analysis

Cost Benefit Analysis technique is used to see the benefit we can get after investing the money. This technique can be used during initialization to check is it worth to invest by calculating the return as part of business case and or can be for improving the quality while considering the cost of quality.

For example, what can be the reduction in the defect, how much of network downtime can be reduced, how much of wastage or scrapping of the raw materials can reduced etc…

We know that as the quality increases the cost also increases. But in the end we need to see is it worth for the investment so as to get the benefit. Cost Benefit Analysis technique is used under the process Plan Quality Management.